Since initiating The Active Network (NYSE: ACTV or “Active”) at Strong Sell in October 2012, we have uncovered further evidence in support of our conclusion that the company is structurally insolvent and resorting to measures of desperation to save its failing business. We now believe ACTV’s balance sheet and revenue problems are even worse than initially suspected, and believe the company is resorting to Lehman Brothers-like reporting tactics to hide debt and Groupon-like accounting to inflate revenues. As a result of our continued concern over the integrity of its financial reporting, we believe Active is at high risk of having to restate its historical financial results, and that shareholders are at great risk of substantial losses. We believe the growth story management is still spinning to investors is a bill of goods and, again, point to a senior management team that has liquidated substantially their entire stake in the company in the year and a half following ACTV’s IPO. Based on our research, the company will be hard-pressed to demonstrate any revenue growth in 2013. We are lowering our price target and believe Active’s stock has an intrinsic value today of $1.50 per share, 75% below current trading levels.
